MCH Analysis publishes general, impersonal investment research and quantitative analysis — each thesis carried to an explicit claim, the indicators that test it, and the kill switch that breaks it. MCH Analysis is operated by MCH Advisory (Pty) Ltd.
Evidence-governed company research, rankings, quantitative analysis, options intelligence, market context and transparent performance measurement.
Consulting is separate from the research publication and is not investment or portfolio advice to any person.
881 US-listed companies, each run through the same disciplined process, with every number tied out. Every name is re-valued after each US trading session, and the rankings and our proprietary alpha score are rebuilt from the same numbers.
Data
Prices, fundamentals and options chains come from a licensed market-data feed. Company filings come directly from SEC EDGAR, and macro series from the Federal Reserve's FRED database, alongside earnings-call transcripts and company news.
Financials are kept exactly as originally filed, so history is never quietly rewritten and every back-test sees only what was knowable at the time.
Rankings
Each ranking sorts the coverage universe on a single figure the model publishes: upside to fair value, margin of safety, expected 12-month return, probability of a loss, bull-to-bear risk/reward, quality, moat, forward P/E and the gap to Wall Street consensus.
Only names re-valued in the latest run and carrying a current rating can compete, so a stale figure can never top a table. Options strategies are ranked separately, on confidence-adjusted expected value measured against the market's own price.
MAS · MCH Alpha Score
MAS condenses a name's investment case into a 0–100 score on a one-year and a five-year horizon. It blends five core components: signal (expected alpha — the model's estimated excess return, as defined in the published methodology — and alpha per unit of risk), fundamentals (quality and moat), value (margin of safety), asymmetry (upside against downside) and confidence (conviction and volatility). Each input is ranked as a percentile across the whole universe.
Only Buy-rated names with positive expected alpha qualify. Stale data, weak quality, thin liquidity or a Reduce stance cut the score.
MAS is experimental. We publish it for transparency and track its forward record publicly; no rating or ranking depends on it. A score is a research measure, not a promise of any investment outcome.
Cadence
After each US trading session, every name is re-priced and re-valued, and the reports, rankings and MAS scores are republished together, so they always agree with one another.
New filings and call transcripts are added weekly. Each report is dated to the run that produced it, and past calls stay exactly as published.
Hypothesis testing
Every proposed change to the method, whether a new signal, a model correction or a different weighting, is treated as a hypothesis rather than an upgrade. It has to earn its place.
Adopted changes are dated and disclosed. Research that has already been published stays exactly as it was.
Every report is built the same way: a single falsifiable claim, the measurable indicators that test it, and the pre-committed kill switch that moves the rating. The method, the model status and the record of past calls are published — including the ones that failed.
A single, falsifiable thesis with a triangulated fair value and an explicit verdict on the rating scale.
The handful of measurable signals that would confirm or break the claim — disclosed, not implied.
The pre-committed evidence that moves the rating, stated before the fact so the discipline is visible.
The S&P 900 (S&P 500 + MidCap 400) — 881 US-listed large- and mid-cap names, spanning all eleven GICS sectors.
DCF, scenario trees and Monte Carlo triangulated to a single fair value, with a probability-weighted twelve-month target.
A three-point rating, a triangulated fair value, and the pre-committed evidence that would move the call.
A full web report and an editable model for all 881 names, plus rankings, a screener and an options overlay.
MCH Analysis is an independent publisher of general investment research, operated by MCH Advisory (Pty) Ltd. We publish structurally argued theses for a general readership — rigorous, evidence-linked, and not paid for by the companies we cover, with material holdings and conflicts disclosed under our Conflicts Policy.
Our edge is method: we make the argument explicit, the numbers reproducible, and the conditions for being wrong visible before the fact.
Rigorous analysis grounded in data, with material holdings and conflicts disclosed under a published policy.
Every claim carried to a verdict, with the evidence that would break it stated up front.
Structural signal over market noise; conviction shown in full, never merely asserted.